Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Whither the Aussie dollar (AUD)?

From the technical analysis point of view, a number of interesting features are apparent in the AUDUSD behaviour since the start of 2013. A marked downward trend is the first thing to notice, and this can be seen, on the daily chart above, without the benefit of any indicators (which are always lagging, in any event).

Then there is the pronounced pinbar, to be seen here, also on the daily chart. This was brought about by the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave the cash rate (official interest rate) unchanged yesterday. This move was expected but it nevertheless had the effect of changing the bearish sentiment, at least temporaily. Will this last? It might, but we will not be betting on it. As per the principles contained in the Omicron Forex training courses, and in the Omicron Forex Trading Manual, our trade initiation software is set so that the only trade direction at present is to the downside in this pair.

We are also conscious that the psychologically significant parity level is hoving into view (nautical term, but you get the picture).

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