Thursday, July 25, 2013

Is the Aussie about to fall from here against the US dollar?


The AUDUSD pair got hit by something of a double whammy as the U.S. Commerce Department reported that house sales rose by 8.3% in June. This provides an annual growth rate that is the highest since 1992. Meanwhile, the HSBC flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 47.7 in July from a reading of 48.2 in June. Anything under 50 marks a decline in manufacturing activity in China.

Australia is highly dependent on Chinese manufacturing for sales of its minerals, in particular.

 For our purposes, the Technical Analysis situation must also be taken into account. The fact of the matter is that the HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI has been falling for the last three months. However, the AUDUSD pair has lately been on a small scale turn upward from an oversold level and it recently approached the significant resistance that exists at 0.93215.

It bounced off that and is now, in fact, attempting to break through the minor support level centred on 0.91368, on the way down (see top 1 Hour chart below).

 The major trend is down so we have set the Omicron Forex Silver Trigger routine to take a short trade in this pair should the momentum trigger indicate that it should be initiated.

We are, as always, thinking in probabilities and attempting to get the odds in our favour.

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