Wednesday, September 25, 2013

The Aussie is once again poised for movement

The Aussie is, once again, at a point of decision. Up to a few days ago it was in a decent upward trend on the back of a decisive election result and improving sentiment from China, one of the country’s largest trading partners.

Now the trend might be broken. Higher highs and higher lows showed when it was definitely alive, but this sequence has stopped. The pair is now poised on a well defined support level, waiting for a catalyst for further movement. This catalyst could turn out to be the Durable Goods report in the US, due out in about an hour and a half. Strong figures will lead to the likelihood of a stronger US dollar, so we can look to the probability of a turnaround in the AUDUSD in that event.

Governments do not always get what they want in regard to currencies, but the Australian authorities would still prefer a weaker Aussie.

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