Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Aussie dollar - All Bets Are Off For A Rise

Given the stated desire of the Australian monetary authorities, in the form of the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), to attempt to talk down the value of the Aussie dollar, given the continuing falls in the price of hard commodities, such as Iron Ore, upon which Australia has been so dependent for its prosperity and now, given the fact that the US economy has provided the rational, in the most recent Non Farm Payrolls report, by which Quantitative Easing (QE) will be finally phased out, there is no reason to believe that the Aussie dollar is in anything other than a bear mood.

And this is borne out by Technical Analysis of the Aussie against the US dollar (AUDUSD pair). The four hour chart shows that we have had a lower high, and a lower low is now a certainty (it is only a question of at what price level it will be established). As we know, lower lows and lower highs define a downtrend.

 On the daily chart, this can also be seen, along with the fact that price is now below the 200 Day Simple Moving Average (SMA), having flirted with the idea of going above it. That is, until the most recent batch of economic indicators out of the USA.

We are currently short the AUDUSD pair. 

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