The old adage that it is not normally a good idea to try to catch a
falling knife is a good one. The idea is that, while it is possible to take a
view that an instrument is “toppy”, that is to say it has gone beyond the level
of price rise that is reasonable, and is due for a fall, it is not at all easy
to time that fall. Many false starts can be made, and entry on the short side
during these can be costly.
In the case of the Euro against the dollar, all fundamental
considerations point to a fall. Quantitative Easing is on its way and the
fiscal and monetary situation in Europe is not
conducive to a strong Single Currency,
We have now set the Silver Trigger to go short on the Euro against the
US dollar (EURUSD). As regular readers will know, a certain momentum to the
downside will be required to trigger a pending order, and then price will have
to reach the level of the trade for it to become an opened one. If price keeps
rising prior to the Silver Trigger giving the signal, the trade will not be
placed until the higher level.
We will see what happens.
We have also set the Silver Trigger to go long against USDJPY, short against AUDUSD, short on gold and our AUDNZD
short trade remains in place.
You can only take from the market what it will give you
Part of Omicron Forex training and the Omicron Forex
Trading Manual is the subject of Trading Psychology. This
emphasises the need to have a stable, realistic and positive mental attitude in
your Forex activities.
One of the most important things to understand in this context is that
you can only take out of the market what the market will make available. This
can best be illustrated by imagining an extreme case, that of where there is no
activity at all - price remains the same at all times and the charts show a
straight, horizontal line. If such a thing were to happen there would be no
opportunity to make profits, period.
It is also reasonable to suggest that there are situations where the
price action, although not completely stopped, is very low. So low, in fact,
that trading opportunities are of such poor quality that they might as well not
exist. Because in addition to making small moves, such low volatility also
makes the market direction unreliable.
When these conditions are present, there is nothing, but nothing, that
the individual trader can do to change them. All he or she can do is wait.
So it is a big mistake to beat yourself up for finding trading difficult
on a low volatility time, which is what we are going through at present.
What you must do is train yourself to be able to see such occasions for
what they are: part and parcel of the trading environment, just like losses
from time to time.
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