Today is Eurozone day, when Mario Draghi, Chairman of the ECB makes its
monthly statement and holds his press conference. The accent today will be on
inflation, or the lack of it. The ECB has a horror of deflation, and the fact
that the rate is now running at an official 0.7% when they would like it to be close
to 2% is a real cause for concern.
Readers who have been paying attention will have noticed that we might
have given the impression of suffering a little from a sense of cognitive
dissonance in relation to the Euro versus the US dollar (EURUSD) rate. The Euro shows little or no sign of weakness, despite
normally depressing developments in the Eurozone. These, coupled with the
expectation of eventual tapering of US Quantitative Easing (QE) should, in
theory, be sending the EURUSD exchange rate steadily lower, but it is not. This
expectation should have been raised by the ADP employment report yesterday,
which showed in excess of 200k new jobs in the US , and is a leading indicator of a
good Non Farm Payrolls report tomorrow (Friday).
At the end of October Eurostat, the EU statistics bureau, reported that
inflation in the Euro zone was at its lowest for four years. The Euro accordingly
lost value but has been regaining it ever since. On 7th November
there was a surprise ECB rate cut (surprising to the market, but not to us).
Again, the Euro took a dive, only to retrace all of it in short order. Then, on
November 20th, a rumour of possible negative EU overnight interest
rates also had the expected reaction, only for this too, to be reversed.
So, what is happening?
We believe the answer lies in Germany ,
and in what can be termed instructive developments in Switzerland .
For some time now, other global powers have been calling on the German monetary
and fiscal authorities to rein in the German trade surplus. This is reckoned to
be damaging not only to the rest of the Eurozone but also to other exporting
nations, in particular the USA .
The Germans, for their part, insist that their success in this area is due to
quality product and high efficiency, rather than to price or other
manipulation.
So where do the Swiss fit into this scenario? Well, Switzerland enjoys, along with Germany , a
reputation for manufacturing excellence along with the most stable of national
economic management. This led to rise in the value of the Swiss franc which was
so strong that the authorities there felt it necessary to place a cap on the
value of their currency unit against the Euro. This stands at 1.20 francs to
the Euro and there is every indication that if the Swiss Central Bank were not
intervening in the market, the franc would be a lot stronger than it is and
Swiss exports would suffer accordingly.
Prior to the establishment of the Euro, this would have been the fate of
the German currency also. We believe that now, Germany is the driver of the EU
economy and many investors, quite simply, see the Euro as nothing more or less
than a proxy for the old Deutschmark.
Is this too simplistic, or is there more to it?
Other currencies
The AUDUSD continues to trend
strongly downward. Any retraces in this pair will be carefully watched for
entry opportunities.
Gold has risen a little
and might just be getting ready for the possibility of a new short trade.
We have closed our NZDUSD
trade, at break-even. This one was not performing and is now a little higher
(it was a short trade) than our entry position. The trending that brought us
into this trade has disappeared. When the reason a trade was entered is no
longer present, it is time to ruthlessly cut the position.
The trade that is current at present is the short in AUDNZD. We have taken off half the
position at the first profit level and the rest of the trade has more profit
locked in by the Stop Loss order. There is a retrace under way at present but
no indication that the dominant downward trend has changed.
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