We wonder how many times the market has to hear that the authorities in New Zealand intend to increase interest rates in 2014 before participants will believe it. Our first trade in the AUDNZD pair was stopped out (after hitting its first profit level and moving into profit on its second leg as well) after the pair went into a retrace.
Then, a few days ago, the Silver Trigger entered a trade on this pair again, also on the short side. After flirting with small paper losses this trade is now also heading for its first profit objective. The reason for this is that, yesterday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reiterated, once more, its intention of … raising interest rates in 2014.
This pair has now reached its lowest point in five years. Obviously the imminence of achieving this distinction created a significant support level, which has now been breached.
All out of step except the Euro
This morning all the currency pairs that we watch (those involving the Yen, gold, the Aussie) on which the imminent end to US Quantitative Easing might be expected to react are indicating that they believe the next announcement from the Federal Reserve, due next week, will bring us closer to that happening.
All except the Euro versus the US dollar, that is.
It remains, stubbornly, at the point of what might turn out to be a double top on the chart. Or it might not. Although we have been bearish on the Single Currency, it would, as always, be terribly wrong to become wedded to a position. We must respect what price is telling us.
While the Silver Trigger is set against the EURUSD pair, it has not yet taken a position.