GBPUSD
is knocking on the 200 period Simple Moving Average on the monthly chart.
It has attempted this level on
a number of occasions since it fell through with it a bang in October 2008, but
failed to break through. A sustained move above the monthly 200 SMA, now at
1.6629, would open up clear blue water all the way to 1.78 and beyond.
The working out of this
scenario could take a little time, however, as the US dollar is also is a
strengthening mode as a result of the announced ending of QE. The British
Central Bank governor, Mark Carney, has apparently set his mind against the raising of UK
interest rates. Any developments that could change this position might be enough
to bring Cable above that 200 period SMA boundary on the monthly chart.
For every Forex pair there is
a season
Certain Foreign Exchange trading pairs have their days in the sun, when
they are slightly more predictable than at other times and the moves they make
can be expected to be sustained in a particular direction.
We have seen this phenomenon with the Antipodeans, the Aussie dollar and
the New Zealand
dollar in the recent past. Before that gold was good for us. We always keep a
watching brief on all of these, even when they have ceased to deliver reliably,
but right now we are looking at three pairs that we think have a future for
trading in the short term. They are the British pound against the US dollar,
the US dollar against the Swiss franc and the US dollar against the Japanese
Yen. The fundamental and technical analysis factors that impinge upon them are
compelling, especially in the light of the apparent determination of the US
Federal Reserve to continue with its tapering program. These are not unrelated
when it comes to considering each currency, but each one also has its own
characteristics.
GBPUSD
USDCHF
USDJPY
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