The US dollar against the
Japanese Yen pair looks like it is getting ready to return to its upward
trajectory, which would be calculated to bring it through the psychological 105.00
resistance level where it baulked as a result of the lower than expected US Non
Farm payrolls report last Friday.
It can be seen that the rate
has bounced off the 38.20% Fibonacci retrace level, with almost clinical
precision. The next support is in the 103.80 to 103.90 region.
According to the Dow Jones
newswire, many eastern dealers have been expecting the pair to move up above
the 105.00 level for the last few days. This can be a problem because when
expectations of a rise are too high, stop loss sell orders, which are typically
placed at a lower level for protection, can be triggered en masse if things go
even slightly in the unexpected direction. Then the downward thrust will be exacerbated
in what is known as a “short squeeze”.
The investment world hangs on the pronouncements, reports and
determinations of the United States Federal Reserve, which is the central bank
of the USA .
There are, however, state reserve banks also, and their words can have an
impact on sentiment that is often almost as profound as those that emanate from
the Eccles Building
in Washington , DC , which is where the Fed is headquartered.
Last week alone there were reports from three state reserve banks and
one monthly survey of local economic indicators, called the “Beige Book”. In
each case there was a notable period of volatility on the short time scale
charts at the precise moment of release. In addition, a number of state reserve
bank governors, who sit on the Federal Reserve, although not all vote, made
speeches that were closely monitored, particularly for clues about Quantitative
Easing.
On Tuesday we had the Empire
State Manufacturing Index, which comes from the New York central bank. The beige book, which
is an almost anecdotal survey of the regions by the Federal Reserve, came out
on Wednesday. Next up, on Thursday, was the “Philly Fed”, or the Philadelphia
Fed Manufacturing Survey and today, Friday, sees the Reuters/Michigan Consumer
Sentiment Index. This comes out at 14:55 GMT.
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