The Australian dollar against
the US dollar (AUDUSD) is at an important support level after shying away from
its 200 Day Simple Moving Average over the last few days. Fundamental Analysis
data for this pair yesterday and overnight gave us reports in each of the
economies concerned that would tend to push this pair down. In the US, a
greater than expected New Homes sales report will tend to strengthen the
Greenback, as it bodes well for the FOMC decision to continue to taper
Quantitative Easing (QE), which is a US dollar positive.
In Australia overnight (GMT), that
country’s Private Capital Expenditure (“private” means non-government, not just
domestic), report was very disappointing. This is interpreted there as raising the
possibility that the Reserve Bank might be tempted, albeit much against its
will, to reduce the cash rate – a negative for the Aussie.
Gold is vulnerable
That positive U.S New Homes
report also gave a push downwards to gold. The precious metal has been surging
upward of late, mainly on the dearth of good economic news out of the USA , which many
blame on the very severe weather that has hit a substantial part of the
country, but which is also a transient phenomenon.
Now there are also
suggestions that the crisis in Ukraine ,
which could lead to a bond default there, has also increased the attraction of
gold as a safe haven. Whatever the cause of the run up, gold is now just below
an important resistance, at the $1355 per troy oz. level. The potential for
further good news from Stateside, for example a Non Farm Payrolls report in the
200k region next Friday would, at the very least, caution against buying gold
at these prices.
Buy, buy, buy!!!! No sell! 100%!)
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