Gold spot contracts 1 week
For an extended period
between the start of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and when it peaked in
September of 2011, the price of gold was on an inexorable rise. This was said
to be based on a number of considerations: (1) a fear for the future of the
world’s reserve currencies, which were under threat as a result of the crisis;
(2) the idea, much promoted by John Paulson, who gained his reputation by
carrying out one of the most successful trades of all time when he anticipated
the crash in the sub-prime mortgage market, that Quantitative Easing (QE) in
the USA would lead to rampant inflation and that there was serious money to be
made in buying and holding gold because of this, and (3) the demand for
so-called physical gold from counties such as India and China, where there
exists a significant cultural attachment to gold both as an investment and for
jewelry, and whose citizens were becoming more and more wealthy.
The use of the adjective “physical”
to describe gold that is actually handled and used is to distinguish it from
the market in gold futures, where investors can buy and sell contracts for the
theoretical delivery or acceptance of the precious metal without ever having to
worry about having to actually do so. This market, and indeed the exchange
market nowadays for spot gold, which is supposed to be for immediate delivery,
are not based on actual inventories of the precious metal. Therefore, they can
give rise to trade volumes that are almost a figment of the imagination and
which, most importantly, can result in the creation of so much virtual gold
that the demand for the physical commodity is completely dwarfed.
And this, in our view, is
exactly what has happened. It is why gold prices fell so precipitously from
September 2011 and why they still have a way to go on the downside.
Gold has been enjoying
something of a resurgence lately, due initially to the delay in the economic
recovery in the USA that was
brought about by unseasonable severe weather, but more recently because of the
geopolitical tensions around Ukraine
and Crimea . These are now, barring any
dramatic happenings, fading in to the background. Gold is also approaching a
significant resistance level on the weekly chart (see above). For all these
reasons we now expect gold to decline from here.
Janet Yellen’s first FOMC meeting
And has Ukraine and Crimea
peaked as a global threat to the markets? We believe they have. The Western world
will talk about illegality and will impose sanctions that are pretty much
meaningless, and will at the same time ensure that there is no disruption to
the supply of gas out of Russia ,
or that there is any pressing reason for NATO to get involved militarily. As
always, these are judgments that are made on the basis of perceived
probability, and no one can tell the future.
In the meantime we will be
watching for the pronouncements of the new chair of the Federal Open Market
Committee, Ms Janet Yellen, when the second meeting of 2014 of that body
concludes later in the global day today.
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