After taking us out of a
previous trade in USDJPY for a small loss (0.3% of equity, which we regard as
“the cost of doing business”) our Mandelbrot algorithmic routine has brought us
back in again. This, as before, is a long trade, in anticipation of the
weakening of the Yen and / or a strengthening of the US dollar.
It would appear that the dip
that took us out previously was caused by end of month / end of quarter / end
of fiscal year positioning by Japanese exporters and others, combined with a
drop in the Nikkei index of Japanese shares, to which the Yen is particularly
sensitive (a weakening index makes for a stronger Yen).
In the case of repositioning,
think of the likes of Toyota , which produces its
cars in Japan
but sells them all over the world for Euros, dollars, pounds and so on, and who
must settle with its sub-contractors and suppliers in Yens. Buying the Japanese
currency to satisfy this requirement will tend to strengthen it, thus driving
down the USDJPY pair.
In any event, we are now back
in, courtesy of the Mandelbrot algorithm, again on the long side, and the
initial move on Friday in our favour was quite gratifying.
A busy week at the start of the new month
Quite apart from the
positioning that takes place at the end of the old month and quarter, not to
mention the fiscal year as has been the case in many jurisdictions, the start
of the new month sees a number of economic reports that will have the potential
to move the Forex market.
This morning (Monday) will
see inflation figures for the Eurozone. We have the GDP outturn for the year on
Wednesday and both these numbers will feed into the ECB interest rate decision
on Thursday and Mario Draghi’s press conference afterwards. The central bank is
increasingly worried about deflation in the Eurozone and recent comments by
senior figures have hinted that the strength of the Euro is now also an issue
that is exercising minds.
Chinese Purchasing Managers
Index figures will be well noted on Tuesday and Thursday, not least for their
possible effects on the economies and therefore the currencies of the two
Antipodean powerhouses, Australia
and New Zealand .
Our preferred way to deal with these is the play the NZ dollar against the
Aussie. While both are dependent on China , the macroeconomic factors in
these countries have now diverged to a significant degree. While no change is
expected in Australian cash rates, released very early on Tuesday in GMT terms,
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens’s speech on Thursday will also have relevance here.
For the second half of the
week focus will, well and truly, shift Stateside, where on Wednesday the ADP
employment report will once again attempt to anticipate official government
employment figures for March. In recent months it has been very much less than
perfect in this regard. Thursday sees initial jobless claims and then, on
Friday, the big daddy report of them all, Non Farm Payrolls and the
unemployment rate will be released. 190k new jobs are expected but many market
participants will be disappointed if the magic number of 200k is not reached or
breached on this occasion.
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