Please note that as this
coming Friday (Good Friday, 18th April) is a holiday for all
important Forex markets, there will be no OmiCronFX commentary on that day.
Since
the end of 2012 Japan has been practicing a form of monetary and fiscal policy
that has become known as Abenomics, after the Prime Minister who was voted into
power in December of the that year, Shinzō Abe. He formulated and
activated measures that were designed to stimulate the Japanese economy. One of
the cornerstones of this policy has been the elimination of deflation, and a
major tool was the weakening of the Japanese Yen, particularly as it stood
against the US dollar.
The
outcome has been a rise in Japanese shares and the Yen has, indeed, weakened
considerably during Mr. Abe’s tenure as Prime Minister. Many investors link the
two – they see a strong negative correlation between Yen valuation and the
growth of the Nikkei 225, the most representative Japanese stock index.
Now
there are influential voices within Japan that are questioning the
efficacy of Abenomics. This tendency is influenced by a number of factors: the
very large Japanese government debt, a fear of what excess inflation might do
when and if deflation is eliminated and, perhaps more than any other, the
effects on Japan of economic
events that are taking place in other jurisdictions, most notably in the USA and Europe .
Now
there is another element. This is the prospect of a period of consolidation, if
not severe correction, in all equity markets. Experience shows that a falling
Nikkei 225 index should be expected to correspond to a strengthening of the Yen.
This could mean a reduction, as opposed to the rise that most Forex market
participants have been long expecting, in the USDJPY rate. Technically, our own
belief is that the chart above has been setting itself up for a fall.
I am indebted to the author
of a new book, “Money Blood and Revolution”, by George Cooper, for the chart
above. I have not yet read the work but the chart stands on its own in terms of
interest. It indicates where the various schools of economic thought exist on a
matrix which relates their belief in the stability of markets with their
advocacy of the place of government in attempting to control the economy.
Those of us who got their
early introduction to the subject through the good offices of the late and
great John Murray, in the MBA class of Trinity College, University of Dublin,
will be interested to see the Austrian School, of Schumpeter et al, holding
exactly the same position in relation to a belief in the stability of markets
with Marxism, although they are, of course, diametrically opposed when it comes
to their stance on the amount of influence / interference that government
should affect in the regulation of the economy.
I am looking forward to Mr. Cooper’s other
insights.
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