It will be necessary to pay
attention this morning because we will be writing about bonds and bond yields.
The reason these are important is because short term yields have risen to levels
that that they have not been at for many years, to the extent that the yield
curve is flattening out. Last week the differential between the five year and
thirty year bond yield was at its lowest since 2009 (see chart above).
This can only happen if fixed
income investors are selling short term bonds. They would only be doing this if
they felt that interest rates in the US have the potential to rise in
the medium term. And we need to know about it because such a development is
bullish for the US dollar.
When bonds are sold, the
price goes down and the yield rises. This is because the yield is determined by
the price of the bond in the secondary market related to its
coupon rate, which is fixed for the lifetime of the bond (that
is why bonds are known as “fixed income” investments).
The yield curve illustrates
the progression in the amounts that an investor can collect by purchasing bonds
of varying maturities. Because of the higher risk of inflation over a longer time period (and
default if the instrument is not a US government, or Treasury, bond), an
investor will expect a higher rate of effective interest for longer term paper.
In those cases, which have cropped up from time to time, where the opposite is
true and long term yields are lower, the yield curve is said to be “inverted”.
This is regarded by economists as a harbinger of recession.
The connection with interest
rates comes about because, at the present cost of money, it pays large
institutions to borrow and use the cash to buy treasuries. They make on the
difference between what they pay for the money and the treasury yield, and they
also take no risk. Sovereign bonds are regarded as safe, and those of the US government
as ultra-safe.
So if interest rates are
perceived to be on the rise, or likely to be on the rise in the near future, it
would pay those institutions to close out their positions in treasuries. They
could then repay their loans, or they might look for opportunities elsewhere,
perhaps in the Carry Trade, where loans are sought in low interest
jurisdictions and re-lent in those where interest rates are higher. If these
institutions are commercial banks, they might even start lending to small and
medium sized businesses.
Or perhaps we are being just a bit
fanciful with that last bit.
Will the ADP payroll report move the Forex market later today?
The private payrolls company,
ADP inc., brings out its monthly employment report later today. This attempts
to anticipate the official US
government Non-Farm Payrolls report, which is on Friday.
ADP has had the ability to
move the Forex markets in the past. However, there are two reasons why it may
not do so on this occasion: One, the Federal Reserve has let it be known that
it will take many more economic indicators into account when formulating
policy, as opposed to solely relying on employment statistics as it has been
doing and two, the fact of the matter is that, for one reason or another, the
ADP report has failed on a number of recent occasions to even come close to
predicting what the official report will contain. This has affected its
credibility.
Notwithstanding the above, we
have instructed the Mandelbrot routine to take half of our USDJPY position off
the table. We cannot foretell the future, our position has attained better than
2% of equity as profit (2.4% to be exact) and the Dollar Yen pair looks like
it might have reached a level where there is likely to be some resistance (see chart above).
Safety first.
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