The Euro has always
been resilient but indications by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB)
at last month’s press conference that it will carry out measures aimed at fighting
too-low inflation have had the effect of weakening the Single Currency in the
interim. As pointed out yesterday (Euro
zone easing is priced in), there is a real risk that the measures to be
announced today will not match the expectations of the market and the Euro –
dollar pair, in particular, will rally.
For this reason we have
closed our short EURUSD position, for a small profit. Better to be safe than
sorry. We will re-evaluate after the ECB meeting and associated press
conference.
The pressures on the
ECB governing council are enormous – much larger than exist in regard to the
decisions made by the Federal Reserve in the USA, for example. This is as a
result of the Federal nature of government stateside, where fiscal and monetary
power is pooled in a manner which, if not always effective in economic terms,
is at least more workable from the administrative point of view. The individual
states of the US Union simply do not have the disproportionate power that
certain countries in the Euro zone have when it comes to these matters, and
this is even before it is considered that some EU member states, notably the
UK, do not even belong to said Euro zone.
The end result for current
Euro monetary policy, when Senor Draghi speaks, is likely to take something of
the form of the old definition of a camel – a horse that was designed by a
committee. This state of affairs is also responsible for the well-established
tendency of the ECB to be long on rhetoric but to have great difficulty in
actually delivering the measures it has indicated are needed from one month to the
next.
Non farm payrolls report fades in significance
Tomorrow is Non Farm
Payrolls day in the USA. Up to now this report, which ir released on the first
Friday of every month, has been the most watched in all investment calendars.
This time around the ECB announcement discussed above has taken centre stage,
however.
Now there is reason
to believe that the NFP report will not, in the future, have the same impact as
previously. This is because, while formerly it was seen as a leading indicator
of the progress of Quantitative Easing (QE) and therefore of US interest rate
decisions, the Fed has now made it clear that (1) there is a transparent, stable
schedule for the elimination of QE firmly in place; (2) it will take many more
factors into account than payrolls when it comes to formulating policy from now
on and (3) its attitude to interest rates under all conceivable scenarios is
that they will be kept low for the foreseeable future.
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