Sunday, June 29, 2014

Three potential market movers this week | …but in a holiday atmosphere

Late tonight GMT, which is in the middle of the working day in Oz, the Reserve Bank, led by governor Glenn Stevens, will make its interest rate decision announcement. No change is expected.

On Thursday, the ECB will have its turn, and Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference. Once again, no change is expected, although the ECB is the one that is most likely to be on an easing bias.

While the US Federal Open Market Committee, chaired by Janet Yellen, does not meet until later in the month, the Non Farm Payrolls report, which is due out on Thursday of this week, will potentially have a bearing on its deliberations. However, as the committee is more interested in trends than in individual outcomes, and has set in train a definitive tapering of Quantitative Easing, no particular fireworks are on the radar.

Holiday atmosphere

Quite apart from the fact that the Fourth of July falls on this coming Friday (meaning that the Non Farm payrolls report will be issued on Thursday instead of the usual first Friday of the month and we will have a shortened trading week), we are now coming into the period of the year where there is a marked move into holiday mode in general. Market activity has been low anyway, meaning that trade opportunities are not as prevalent as one might like. Market participants who are anticipating their annual hols is not calculated to improve this situation.

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