Late tonight GMT, which is in the
middle of the working day in Oz, the Reserve Bank, led by governor Glenn
Stevens, will make its interest rate decision announcement. No change is
expected.
On Thursday, the ECB will have its
turn, and Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference. Once again, no change
is expected, although the ECB is the one that is most likely to be on an easing
bias.
While the US Federal Open Market Committee,
chaired by Janet Yellen, does not meet until later in the month, the Non Farm
Payrolls report, which is due out on Thursday of this week, will potentially have
a bearing on its deliberations. However, as the committee is more interested in
trends than in individual outcomes, and has set in train a definitive tapering
of Quantitative Easing, no particular fireworks are on the radar.
Holiday
atmosphere
Quite apart from the fact that the
Fourth of July falls on this coming Friday (meaning that the Non Farm payrolls
report will be issued on Thursday instead of the usual first Friday of the
month and we will have a shortened trading week), we are now coming into the
period of the year where there is a marked move into holiday mode in general. Market
activity has been low anyway, meaning that trade opportunities are not as
prevalent as one might like. Market participants who are anticipating their annual
hols is not calculated to improve this situation.
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