Yesterday the Australian dollar went
to its highest level against the US dollar since November of last year – in other
words it reached its highest for all of 2014 to date. Overnight (GMT), during the Asian
session, however, it has come back below resistance (at 0.9463).
While the move up was on the back of
a less than dovish stance by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the commentary
that accompanied its recent decision to leave interest rates unchanged, it also
reflects underlying weakness across the board in the US unit.
Jobs
will be key
The rise in the Aussie is almost
counter-intuitive. Certainly, there is significant interest rate differential in
favour of the Australian unit and while there is no clear indication that this
will change in the short term, in the medium term there is every reason to
think so. Iron Ore prices have gone through the floor; the Chinese economy, on
which Australia is very dependent, has been adjusting to a lower growth model
for some time; and now a number of reports have appeared that warn of significant
job losses in Australia as it adjusts from a mining based economy to one that is
more reliant on local consumption. All of these things should militate against
a strong Australian currency.
Perhaps the market needs to see
Australian job losses reflected in an official report before it demotes the currency.
And the same applies to its
counterpart in the AUDUSD pair. The US Non Farm Payroll report, due out
tomorrow (Thursday) could, if strong, provide the impetus for an end to the recent
slide in the Greenback and a consequent fall in AUDUSD.
Fireworks
in Brussels fail to move the Forex market
Our Brussels correspondent was on
scene on Friday last when the great battle took place between Great Britain, on
the one hand, and practically the rest of the European Union but with Germany’s
Angela Merkel foremost, on the other, about the selection of Jean-Claude
Juncker as President of the European Commission, to succeed Jose Manuel Barroso.
Britain was objecting to the former
president of Luxembourg on the grounds that he represents the Federalist
mindset within Europe. The Conservative government in London (which would really
like it to be little more than a trading club) thinks that the EU is as fully
integrated as it should be.
Merkel et al won out, and M. Juncker
is to occupy the position. What is of supreme interest here is the effect, or
rather the lack of any effect, of all these shenanigans on the fate of either the
Euro or the British pound. There is no doubt in this commentator’s mind that if
anything similar had taken place in the political scene on the other side of
the Atlantic the repercussions for the US dollar, and the equity markets, would
have been profound.
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