Recently, the governor of the Reserve
Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens, remarked that those investors who had seen an
opportunity in buying Australian government bonds would be wise to hedge their
positions against a fall in the Australian dollar. The reason the Aussie is a
risk to foreign bond buyers is that they must purchase it with their own
currencies in order to participate in the bond market Down Under, and Stevens
was engaging in that quintessential activity of central bankers: attempting to
talk down a currency instead of taking direct action to achieve the same
effect, such as lowering interest rates. In Australia this is known as “Jawboning”.
In Australia in particular, much as they would like a weaker currency in order to assist the economy, the fear
of the RBA is that a further reduction in rates will serve to inflame an already very buoyant property market, particularly in housing.
Now Stevens is expected to take
another opportunity, very early in the morning tomorrow in GMT terms, when he
is scheduled to give a speech in Sydney (to the Anika Foundation). This origanisation
was set up to deal with teen depression and would not immediately be thought of
as a typical forum for economic discussion but the market, nevertheless, awaits
Mr. Stevens’s words with considerable interest.
Forex
volatility may assist
Volatility is a measure of the amount
of movement in the price of an investment (or of the exchange rate in the case
of a currency) in a given time, either up or down. It is measured by the beta
factor in many economic equations, which is itself a proxy for risk.
A foreigner purchasing Australian
bonds is one way of engaging in the Carry Trade, which is where investors will
effectively borrow in a low interest jurisdiction and lend out in a high interest
one. If volatility increases, which it is now showing signs of doing on the
back in increased geopolitical tensions, it will tend to make the Carry Trade
more risky, as the investment currency, in this case the Aussie dollar, could
drop in value and decrease or eliminate the potential profits when the time
came to change it back into the funding currency, as hinted at by Mr. Stevens.
Increased volatility could have the
effect of assisting governor Stevens in his quest to reduce the value of the
Aussie, as it will tend to discourage the purchase of the Australian unit for
the purposes of the Carry Trade.
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