In
these dog days of summer the Foreign Exchange market looks to a number of
events later this week that just could have the effect of setting the scene for
a rise in volatility when traders get back to their desks after the vacation
period.
While
tomorrow (Wed) sees the publication of the FOMC minutes for its last meeting, which
might give some clues about the likely timing of interest rate rises, we also
have the minutes of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee on the same
day. At the Bank of England, Governor Mark Carney has been sending somewhat
confusing signals to the market about interest rate rises, which it does not
like.
The
ECB, under Mario Draghi, has been worried about low inflation but seems constricted
in what, if anything, they can do about it.
Jackson Hole symposium is centre
stage
In
these circumstances the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, hosted by the
Kansas City Federal Reserve and running from Thursday to Saturday, will be of consuming interest. Here, Central
Bankers and other economic personalities will speak and be interviewed on their
fears, intentions and hopes for the future.
Mark
Carney of the BoE will not be able to make it on this occasion, but he will be
represented by the deputy governor, Ben Broadbent. Will he be able to give some
clarity to his superior’s recent remarks, detailed here
and here?
The
words of Janet Yellen (US interest rates) and Mario Draghi (EU Quantitative
Easing or something akin to it) will be parsed and analysed, not least on our
commentary, as will anything else that might be germane to the movement of
currency exchange rates..
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