Last night in GMT terms the Reserve
Bank of Australia (RBA) announced that it was leaving its core interest rate
unchanged, at 2.5%. This was in line with expectations.
However, it is far from plain sailing
for the Australian economy at present. While the authorities foresaw a decline
in the contribution of the mining industry to the wealth of the nation, and declared
its intention to move to a reliance on domestic consumption to compensate, it
is still a factor and the rapid and sustained collapse in the price of Iron Ore
cannot be adding to the health of Australian GDP.
Unemployment has risen to its highest
level in 12 years and the central bank has downgraded its forecasts for both
growth and inflation. In the meantime it has repeatedly declared that the
strong Australian currency is a drag on the economy.
The authorities do not seem to be
able to make up their minds on house prices. Is home construction going to give
the economy a boost or have relatively low interest rates created an incipient
bubble in the residential property market, both in terms of renters and of those
householders who make an investment of their homes?
On the Technical Analysis front, as
seen in the chart above, the overall trend in the AUDUSD pair is still upward.
The 200 Day EMA is rising and has reliably acted as a support to the exchange
rate for some time.
Now, however, it is once more
threatened with a breach, following last night’s announcement. There are also
two other levels of support that must be gone through before we can truly say that
we have the beginning of a downtrend.
Tonight in GMT terms sees the release
of the latest Australian GDP figures.
US
dollar strength might be key to fall in AUDUSD
In the medium to long term, the fate
of the quote currency in this Forex cross, the US dollar, is probably the key
to the performance of the pair. For some time now there has been a feeling that
the RBA is content to allow its counterpart Central Bank in the US, the Federal
Reserve, do the job of bringing about a lower Aussie dollar, which it would
like in order to assist the economy. In the last few weeks the Greenback has indeed
been performing and the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate
reports this coming Friday might have some bearing on this situation.
Any indication that there could be a
narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Australia that
comes sooner rather than later will depress this currency pair.
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