Yesterday, while polling in the
Scottish independence referendum was under way but also in the knowledge that
both the bookies (strongly) and the opinion polls (marginally) were of the view that the proposition
would be defeated, the Pound sterling traded aggressively to the upside. It was
always believed that a vote for cessation from Great Britain would be bad for
the British currency. It was already considerably oversold in the previous
sessions, largely, it was thought, because of uncertainty brought on by the upcoming
plebiscite.
Now, though, as the result is in and
there will be no independence this time round for the land of Burns, Scott and
Robert Louis Stevenson, the Pound is in retreat, at least as of this writing
(see chart above). It would seem that those who had decided to bet on the result
using the Forex market instead of the High Street bookmakers are taking their
winnings off the table: a classic case of Buying the Rumour and Selling the
News. This comes about because of profit taking after a run-up due to any set
of expectations, and is very common in the equity markets. There could,
however, be a further relief rally when Forex traders in the U.S. get to their
desks later in the global day.
Now
business and usual for the Bank of England
After the sighs of relief that must
be emanating from the corridors of power in England, the governor and board of
the Bank of England can get back to the business of guiding expectations of
their own, the most important of which must be on decisions regarding core interest
rates.
It is understood that Mark Carney,
BoE chief, broke off his engagement with the G20 meeting in Australia in order
to be on hand at headquarters in case a contingency plan had to be triggered in
the event of the alternative outcome. Now he can relax, at least for the weekend.
Then it will be business as usual and all eyes in Forex will be on the next
moves in rates, and all the factors that are likely to affect them.
The Bank of England has announced
that it will not be making any statement on the outcome of the referendum.
No comments:
Post a Comment