One could be forgiven for thinking
that the New Zealand dollar / US dollar pair (NZDUSD) would be heading
resolutely south after experiencing what could be described as a triple whammy
over the last two days (Wednesday and Thursday Oct 29 and 30).
Firstly there was the FOMC monetary policy
statement, which effectively reversed the committee’s previous concerns about
employment and inflation expectations, leading to what was a far more hawkish
stance than had been expected. QE is over and the prospect of sooner rate rises
stateside has increased, which tends to strengthen the US dollar.
Then the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
came out with its policy statement. Not only did they not increase rates, they
made it clear that they were to stay flat for the foreseeable future, and also used
language that intimated that the NZ dollar was way overpriced and expected to
fall. So a dovish RBNZ, which should, in theory, weigh on the Kiwi.
Thirdly, US GDP figures were released,
which revealed quarterly growth of 3.5% as against 3% expected. Again, bullish
for the US dollar.
Now, while all of these things sent
the pair in the indicated direction initially, the sentiment did not last. Immediately
after the GDP announcement NZDUSD started to climb. As our US friends might
say: “Go figure”.
Bonds
tell a story
Under the conditions outlined above
(Hawkish FOMC and good GDP growth) US treasuries, or government bonds, would be
expected to fall in price, leading to a higher yield (we regard bond yield as a
proxy for core interest rate expectations). But this did not happen. They rose
instead. Some commentators put this down to the fine print of the GDP
statement. This showed that a large part of the increase was made up of defence
spending, which is known to be volatile. In addition, the consumer spending component
of the GDP index rose at only a little more than half the rate of the previous
release.
More significantly, perhaps, is the
reality of low inflation at the present time, both in the US and in other major
economies. This depresses expectations of core interest rate rises in a general
way. So, against what might be expected from the released data, bond prices go
up and the greenback weakens, relatively speaking - it is still in an overall
uptrend.
And then there is the fact that we
are in the end-of-month period, when there just might be a bit of re-alignment
of portfolios going on.
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