Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Forex events prior to Thanksgiving | record lows in Iron Ore and the Aussie dollar

Even though this is the week of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States (tomorrow, Thursday) and also the last week of the month, each of which could be expected to contribute to lacklustre trading, there are a number of events due today that could shake things up just a little bit.

At 9:30 GMT UK GDP will be announced, which should provide direction to the pound Sterling which, in our opinion, is looking for a reason to start to climb again after a relatively prolonged period of decline against the US dollar, and even against the Euro on occasion.

US durable goods (13:30 GMT) orders are always watched for their effects on the greenback and Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 also) are a regular market mover. Both the Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:55) and New Home Sales data (15:00) also have the potential to stir matters.

Somewhat ironically, it is in periods of slow trading that events such as these can have the biggest impact, as a relatively low level of buying and selling can have a disproportionate effect on volatility.

Record lows in Iron Ore and Aussie dollar

A report on Bloomberg earlier in the week was fairly confident that the price of Iron Ore, so important still to the Australian economy and the fate of the Aussie dollar, would find a floor at US$70 per tonne. All kinds of things are supposed to happen at this nice round figure, from the closure of smaller, less-economically viable mines to opportunistic buying by Chinese steel producers.

It was not to be and last night the hard commodity fell through the $70 level. At the end of commodity trading yesterday, benchmark Iron Ore for delivery to the port of Tianjin in China was trading at $US68.60 per tonne, down 2% from the previous level which was, in fact, US$70.00.

And right on cue, the Aussie dollar also broke through to lows that have not been seen since July of 2010. At the time of writing it stands at 0.8552 to the US dollar.


No comments:

Post a Comment