The release of the latest report from
the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) warning us that it is more
likely than ever that global warming is taking place and that it is caused by
humans, reminds us that last winter was the occasion when it appeared that a
large part of the economic activity in the US came to a shuddering halt due to
severe weather, which had its effect on the markets. There was a fear that it
could even go so far as to cause a structural, long-term decline.
Well, that did not happen. In fact
when the winter was over the US economy took off like a rocket, and we are
still feeling the effects. Now, as we approach that time of the year again, it
is timely to wonder if we are in for more of the same this year?
A report in Time
Magazine has it that last winter was not really that bad in the USA after all, in historical terms. The authors’ thesis is that, as temperatures
have been rising over many years, people’s perception of what constitutes a
cold spell has changed. What would have been tolerated as normal in the middle
of the last century is now regarded as freakish. This may be true, but it has
always been the case that it is perceptions that count.
Oil
price fell last winter
Another interesting observation is
that the price of oil, normally so sensitive to heating requirements in the US,
showed a significant dip last January. It later rose throughout the spring and summer before starting its rapid decline to where it is today. This decline is down to
the fact that the USA is producing oil now from Shale reserves and is on the
point of becoming an exporter once again, as laws passed to prevent exportation
of oil in order to conserve supplies are being repealed.
Was the fall last January a
forerunner of this, or was it yet another indication that last winter was not
as bad as it seemed at the time?
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