In a sharp reversal of expectations,
the strong signs from Down Under are that the authorities there are getting
ready for a number of core interest rate cuts in the New Year. This is in
contrast to the accepted wisdom up to as late as last week that the next move
would be up, not down.
The Central Bank (Reserve Bank of
Australia) is known to be concerned about the relatively high value of the
Aussie dollar, in spite of considerable falls in recent times. The elevated
level is a threat to exports, at a time when the balance of trade has been
adversely affected by a serious deterioration in the price of hard commodities,
most notably Iron Ore.
Recently, we highlighted
the fact that yield differentials between Aussie government
bonds and US treasuries were in decline. This means that the bond market was
effectively pricing in the possibility of core interest rate reductions. Now
Wespac, one of Australia’s big four banks and a respected Forex market
participant, has
come out with a prediction of a 1% rate cut within 12 months.
In doing this it has changed its outlook through a full 180 degrees.
Mortgage
restrictions will clear the way
One reason why the RBA has been
reluctant to lower rates in the past has been its fear of a property bubble,
particularly in the residential market. For a little while now, in spite of the
known scepticism on the part of RBA governor Glenn Stevens about the efficacy
of such measures, there has been talk of placing restrictions on property
loans, the so-called macro-prudential policies that are already in place in
both New Zealand and the UK. Now such restrictions are moving much closer to
becoming reality.
News reports from Australia now have
it that the
lending regulatory agencies are taking steps that have
the strong potential to be the forerunners of such restrictions. Given the
other indicators of an interest rate cut in Australia, it looks like the
powers-that-be are getting their ducks in line, to ensure that a rate cut or
cuts will not further inflame the property market.
Yesterday we indicated
that the Bank of England is getting ready for interest rate
rises. As a difference in core interest rate trends is one of the most
important determinants of currency exchange rates, it now looks like the GBPUAD
cross might be a good candidate for a move up (see chart at top). Technically,
this chart is already well biased to the upside. There is a series of higher
lows, price is well above the 200 week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), is
using it as support, and this indicator is itself sloping upward. A break
through the next resistance, at the 1.92 level, would be significant.
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