The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
monetary policy statement and press conference last evening (GMT) was
characterised by a continuation of seriously mixed messages to the Forex and
other markets. On the one hand the committee has removed the terminology from
the statement that included the word “patient”, which it had at least allowed
market participants to believe would signal a start in core interest rate rises
after another two meetings, but replaced it with so many caveats that the whole
exercise is now seen as pushing rate increases further into the future than
they had already been. The statement is thus seen as dovish, despite the
removal of the P word.
Three things are worrying Ms. Yellen
and her colleagues: (1) a perception of slowing economic growth (2) a stubborn
resistance on the part of wage rises to keep pace with the improving employment
rate and (3) low inflation. All of these things are interlinked, and the common
denominator between them is the value of the US dollar. A rising dollar hurts
exports, which depresses wages and economic growth. Low inflation, as is being
demonstrated in the Eurozone at present, can be combated by encouraging a lower
currency exchange rate. It all adds up to pushing core interest rate rises
further and further out into the future, because the first actual rate rise can
be calculated to give a boost to the US dollar that could put recent strength
in the shade.
US
dollar suffers
Last evening, the Forex market got
the message, and sold the Greenback. When one adds to this the fact that,
technically, the dollar has been seriously overbought in recent times, particularly
against the Euro, one can be forgiven for expecting more of the same in the
coming days.
In this regard much will also depend
on the behaviour of the Single Currency itself. QE in the Eurozone is a
powerful determinant of Euro strength or weakness, and it has only begun to be
implemented. One way or the other, we can expect some volatility in Foreign
Exchange.
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