Jobless claims in the USA, which
measure the numbers who are continuing to claim unemployment as well as those
who are claiming for the first time, actually rose yesterday compared to the
last reading. However, as these figures are released every week, market
participants are able to take more than one reading into account. This
contrasts with the Non-Farm Payrolls figure each month, where the headline
number is invariably used to decide the direction in which the US dollar should
go, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is known to concentrate on trends
rather than individual data points.
On that basis the jobless claims numbers
are quite good. The 4-week moving average showed a decrease from the previous
week’s unrevised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April
of 2000. That is all of 15 years ago.
The consensus is that the figures
yesterday point to a growing labour market stateside.
The US dollar gained a little on the
news, but then gave it all up again an hour later when the stats for existing
home sales were released. They showed a lower number than previously.
Busy
day today
Today, Friday May 22nd is
a busy day for news releases that might affect the Forex market. By the time
you read this GDP figures for Germany, the locomotive of the Eurozone economy,
will have been published.
Later, at 9:00 GMT, the IFO business
climate sentiment index will be out, again for Germany.
Consumer Price Index figures for the
USA are due at 13:30 GMT. As inflation is the current bugbear of all central
banks, these figures will be closely watched.
There are also a number of speeches
scheduled by central bank governors. Both Mario Draghi (ECB) and Mark
Carney (Bank of England) will speak in Europe, while governor Karuda of the Bank
of Japan is on stage in the Land of The Rising Sun.
No comments:
Post a Comment