The Australian dollar got a nice
boost this morning when the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that it would
not be cutting interest rates this time round. It was also non-committal about
the possibility of cuts in the future.
The central bank has apparently
decided to maintain a holding pattern pending further developments in the range
of factors that influence its decisions. A housing bubble in the major cities is
one reason for not reducing, while the need to stimulate economic activity
outside of mining argues in the opposite direction. In the meantime the price
of Iron Ore, an extremely important export for the country, might have stabilised
around $60 per tonne. The Chinese economy, of great concern to Australia
because of its importance as a destination for said Iron Ore exports, is now
showing a resilience that can only be a welcome development to our antipodean
friends.
Euro
– dollar downtrend resumed yesterday
The Single Currency (EURUSD) is in a
falling trend at present, but this was reversed for a short period yesterday
while the market digested rumours that there was a resolution, at long last, to
the Greek problem.
At 15:00 London time, however, normal
service was resumed, on the release of the US Institute of Supply Managers’
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). This rose to 52.8 from 52.00 expected and
51.5 previously, indicating a further expansion of manufacturing activity in
the US. This was enough to bring market participants’ back to the expectation
that the Federal Reserve is now on track to begin raising core interest rates,
which is a positive for the Greenback (a falling EURUSD means a strengthening
US dollar). Janet Yellen and her colleagues have made it abundantly clear that
their final decision on the timing for this will be data dependent, so any
economic indicator that is consistent with further strengthening of the US
economy has the effect of concentrating minds wonderfully.
The rumours about a Greek agreement
have not proven to be reliable, at least up to the time of writing.
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