The
Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which measures inflation, is released by the
US Bureau of Labor Statistics once a month. The latest one came out at 13:30
GMT yesterday. Given the importance that the Federal Reserve has placed on
inflation in their considerations of when it will be appropriate to raise core
interest rates, these releases are closely watched by the Forex and other
markets. OmiCronFX, and the Mandelbrot algorithmic routine are no exception.
It
is important to realise that it is never going to be possible to predict exactly what will happen
to exchange rates when a release like this takes place. The best we can do is
to carry out the research so that we get probability on our side. Yesterday’s
release, when compared with the previous one, in May, gives an idea of what
this means in practice. The trade that Mandelbrot put on when the report was
released last month is shown in the chart above. It lasted just two hours and
cleared a profit of 1.80% of equity. Pretty good.
Mandelbrot
was ready again yesterday, at the right time. On this occasion, however, it was
a somewhat different story:
The
trade on this report incurred a loss, of 0.51% of equity. The exchange rate did
not go anywhere and the trade was stopped out about thirty minutes after entry.
The
combined result of both trades indicates the value of having a positive
expectation. The profitable trade returned some 3.53 times what was lost in the
losing trade. This was expected because we had carried out the research going
back over a large number of CPI reports, and the software is designed so that a
positive expectation always exists.
Playing the numbers
Sometimes
these trades work, and sometimes they do not. What is important is that we have
probability on our side and not with the other players in the market, our
counterparties. Forex trading, like all such trading, is a zero-sum game - in
order for us to win, someone else has to lose. To make sure that we have the
advantage of an edge, we need to be using well developed trading (algorithmic)
software, which enforces trading discipline, is always ready to enter a trade
and which ensures that profits are maximised and any losses made as small as
possible. We also heed to have carried out the historic research. The same
software allows us to do that.
Mandelbrot
also determines the direction of the trade. In the case of yesterday’s release
above, it can be seen by the longish upward pointing tail on the price bar that
the initial impetus was to the upside. In retrospect this was correct, because
inflation came in lower than expected, which would be a negative for the
Greenback as it would tend to put off the day when interest rate rises will
begin.
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