This
commentary is from the archive, as your commentator is on holiday. It was first
published in November 2014
The release of the Federal Open
Market Committee’s (FOMC) minutes for the most recent meeting, at which
Quantitative Easing was officially discontinued, were released late yesterday
in GMT terms.
While there was some instantaneous
volatility of currency pairs containing the US dollar on the release, rather in
the manner of Pavlov’s dogs, things quickly returned to where they were prior
to it.
The revealed discussions indicate
what has now become a fairly predictable pattern. Like all Central Bankers
around the world, the members are concerned about falling inflation. However,
while this is a general problem in developed economies, the FOMC does not seem
to be overly concerned that economic conditions overseas will unduly affect the
USA.
The minutes are always scrutinised by
market participants for certain key phrases, and the one to watch at the moment is “considerable period”, which refers
to the amount of time that will have to pass after the ending of QE before
interest rates Stateside start to rise. The most significant takeaway for the
market in this release is that this formula is still in place. This is
interpreted to mean that core rates will not rise until at least the middle of
next year, and even at that the committee has reiterated that the timing is
still dependent on data that emerges between now and then.
The
Swiss nostalgia for gold
There was a time when currencies had
to be backed by the gold holdings of the government that issued them. This was
called the gold standard, and it was ended for good in the early 1970’s, when
the value of a currency was made to depend rather on the credibility and the
economic management of the economy in question. So the US dollar, the Euro, the
pound Sterling and so on are all now known as “fiat currencies”, because their
value is now decided by the action, or fiat, of the issuing jurisdiction.
After the ending of the gold
standard, most developed economies sold their gold holdings and bought the
bonds or held the currencies of other countries instead, which now constitute
their economic reserves. What none of them realised at the time of these gold sales
was the dramatic rise that was about to take place in its price, especially
after the onset of the Global Financial Crisis which began in earnest in 2007.
The rise in gold then was due to fears of rampant inflation, for which the
yellow metal would be a hedge, after the introduction of QE in the USA.
The fact that a rise in inflation did
not materialise is of no interest to certain Swiss citizens, who criticise
their government for not keeping their gold and therefore enhancing the
country’s wealth by its appreciation. These people have enough support to bring
about a referendum which is aimed at forcing the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to
maintain at least 20% of its reserves in gold, up from the 10% they hold at
present. The voting takes place in ten days’ time, on Nov. 30th.
The Chairman of the SNB, Thomas
Jordan, has come out against the proposal, as have many business people. They
argue that the requirement, if passed, would hamper efforts to manage the Swiss
franc valuation, which is a major concern as it has become too strong for the
good of exports. They are effectively saying, in regard to the gold standard,
“that was then, this is now”.
Opinion polls are indicating that the
referendum is more likely to fail than to succeed but the prospect of the Swiss
government having to make significant purchases of the yellow metal, in the
event that the measure is carried, has gold investors more than a little bit
excited.
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