We suppose it was inevitable, in the
dog days of Summer and with all the excitement that was the Greek crisis apparently
off the radar, at least for the time being, that market commentary should
return to the fundamental factors that will impact the most strongly traded
global currency pair, the Euro against the US dollar. And, once again, the
market has the figure of one Euro to one US dollar, or parity, in its sights.
We have often heard parity being
talked about since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, but it has
not come to pass. This time, however, may indeed be different.
Goldman
Sachs is a ‘structural USD bull’
A trading team at Goldman Sachs
issued a note following last Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls report, where they
outlined their reasoning behind a prediction that the pair will go to 1.02
within three months, and hit parity within six months. We have constructed a price
channel for the pair in the chart above which would, in Technical Analysis
terms, be consistent with that target.
GS reckons that US treasury bonds
that have a shorter term to maturity, the so-called front end of the yield curve,
will from now on attract a risk premium. This is related to the expectation that
interest rates will rise at some stage in the US, and is a positive for the US
dollar.
They also propose that the resumption
of the collapse in oil prices, triggered by the deal to end sanctions against
Iran, will increase deflationary pressures in both the Euro zone and Japan.
This, in turn, will strengthen the incentive for both of those countries’ monetary
authorities to accelerate monetary easing, or QE, a depressor of the value of their
currencies, and a driver of the EURUSD to the downside (and USDJPY to the
upside).
As has always been the case, it is
the growing disparity between US and other regions’ monetary policy that is the
real driver of exchange rates.
Goldman Sachs is of the opinion that,
right now, the market is dismissing the factors outlined above, but that this will
change.
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