After two cuts in the core
interest rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia , the Aussie dollar is now
heading almost inexorably for its next support, which is marked by the level to
which it fell in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008
/ 2009.
After being shored up for
years on the back of hard commodity exports, mainly Iron Ore, to China, the
currency is now suffering the effects of a slowdown in the world’s second
largest economy, and the consequent reduction in imports from all sources, but
most especially from the supplier that is geographically most advantaged when
times are good.
The interest rate cuts, with
perhaps more to come, are merely a necessary response by the RBA to the slowing
Australian economy, but they are nevertheless the trigger for the unwinding of
the carry trade, where investors borrow in low-interest rate jurisdictions so
that they can invest where rates are higher – up to recently this meant
investment in Australia .
Heading for Global Financial Crisis level against the
USD
The most recent nail in the
coffin for the Aussie was the release, yesterday morning GMT time, of the
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures for quarterly Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). These show that, in seasonally and inflation (so-called ‘chain-value
volumes’) adjusted numbers, the economy only managed to grow 0.2% in the period.
According to the ABS, reduced mining and construction activity, coupled with a
decline in exports, were the main drivers of this.
One optimistic note was the
report that a positive contribution to GDP came from domestic final demand
components of household and government consumption. This is some good news
after the authorities’ stated desire to move economic growth drivers from those
that accrue from exports to those that are based on domestic consumption.
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