There was a thought-provoking
intervention by Vitor Constancio, the Vice President, at last Thursday’s press
conference following the European Central Bank’s monetary policy statement in
Malta. Mr. Constancio is something of an expert on inflation and its
not-so-desirable counterpart, deflation.
We have extracted the part of
the press conference where these wise words were uttered and put them up on YouTube.
You can access them by clicking here
to listen to the man himself, but the essence of what he had to say is summed
up by an emphasis on debt and the real, inflation adjusted interest rates which
dictate how this debt is serviced. There is also the fact that when inflation
goes negative, wages and salaries increase in real terms because there is an
inbuilt opposition to a reduction in take-home pay. This diminishes competitiveness
in industry. And then there is the old problem of negative inflation motivating
individuals and businesses to postpone purchases. Who is going to buy and new
fridge when they know that they can get it cheaper in the future?
The focus on debt is interesting.
Member states of the Eurozone, and their private citizens, now have perhaps
more debt than they ever had. The only positive here is that core interest
rates are low, but obviously this debt is of major concern to the central bank.
UK GDP first estimates today
Certain leading indicators of
the strength of the UK economy, such as strong retail sales and industrial
production, point to the possibility that the release of the first estimate
Gross Domestic Product figures by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) later
today will show growth this time round.
Such an eventuality is bound to increase the probability that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will be motivated to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. This, of course, would be a positive for Cable, as the British pound against the US dollar is known in Forex circles.
Such an eventuality is bound to increase the probability that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will be motivated to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. This, of course, would be a positive for Cable, as the British pound against the US dollar is known in Forex circles.
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