As we
pointed out recently, the EURUSD pair has formed a pattern on the weekly chart
that would be regarded as significant by Technical Analysis (TA) aficionados.
This is called an ascending triangle and can be seen above. Normally, this type
of pattern would be regarded as an indication that the instrument in question
is going higher, as a continuation of the rising trend of its bottom boundary.
Indeed, it is apparent that attempts were made by the pair to break out to the
upside in each of the months of August, September and, most recently, this
month, October.
However,
these attempts have been consistently rebuffed. What might be the cause of all
this?
Strong forces are in contention here
The most
likely explanation is that there is now a competition between two strong forces
– firstly, we have the fact that the Euro is now a funding currency for the
carry trade, where investors will borrow in Euros (a low interest currency) in
order to effectively lend out in other currencies that will give a greater
return. The US dollar is moving into this category with the high expectation
that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at some time in the not-too-distant
future. Secondly, there are now also signs that the Euro has become a
safe-haven currency, to be bought when it looks like global stability is
threatened. Both of these forces will tend to make the Euro rise against the US
dollar.
Acting
against those tendencies is the fact that the European Central Bank is
determined to both raise inflation in the Euro zone (which requires a weak
currency) and to keep the value of the Euro suppressed in order to maintain
healthy exports. It does this by having officials make comments that will lower
the Single Currency, as with the remarks of Ewald Nowotny, the Austrian member
of the ECB governing council last week, which caused exactly such a drop. There
is also a strong feeling here that the ECB could be active in the currency markets,
and that it will soon announce a further acceleration of its Quantitative
Easing program, maybe as early as later this week when there is an ECB monetary
policy statement due.
It is notable
that in each of the cases mentioned above when EURUSD was obliged to reverse
from its attempts to break out, these reverses were closely associated with the
200 period Exponential Moving Average on the daily chart (the 200 Day EMA, one
of the most significant of such indicators):
No comments:
Post a Comment