Despite the
fact that the Forex market bought the US dollar across the board in the
immediate aftermath of the statement (see chart above for EURUSD – a drop in
this pair indicates a strengthening dollar), indicating that it sees it as strongly
hawkish, the Fed is still reiterating that two things remain essential for an
actual rate rise to happen: job growth and utilisation (the proportion of unemployed
people who are actively seeking work) have to improve further, and inflation has
to be seen to be moving towards the 2% annual level that the Fed wants. So
indicators of these will be even more closely watched in the coming months and
weeks.
More info will be available later
today
Today will see
the release of the latest US Initial Jobless Claims and US preliminary GDP
figures, which contribute to exactly the economic trends the Fed is watching.
They will both be released at the start of the US trading session. They will
either confirm the recent bias of the Forex market or throw some confusion into
the consideration of whether a rate rise is still on the cards for 2015.
Today also
sees the numbers for the German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (inflation)
and this could create an additional impact on the Euro-dollar exchange rate.
Any further weakening in German inflation is bound to strengthen the expectation
that more ECB easing is in prospect, which is also calculated to weaken EURUSD.
Exciting times.
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