The strong
positive surprise that was the US Non-Farm Payrolls report last Friday (271k
additional jobs created in the US as against 180k expected in October, and an
actual 142k the previous month – the largest rise in NFPs this year) now sets
up retailers for what they must hope will be a bumper selling season coming
into the Thanksgiving and Christmas shopping seasons. More people at work means
more disposable income, as does the increase, also reported on Friday, in
Average Hourly Earnings (up 2.5%). Energy costs remain low and in fact are
still falling. Lower prices for motor and heating fuel have often been likened
to an unexpected tax rebate for individuals.
There is
really only one cloud on the horizon, and it only exists for those of who take
a contrarian view of things. Reuters are reporting that CALL options, purchased
by those who expect the index to rise, outnumber PUT options (betting on a
fall) in the consumer discretionary sector Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), in the ratio of some 2.5 : 1. The
relevance of contrarian signals lies in the fact that there is a considerable
cohort of traders that believes that the market more often does exactly the
opposite of what the majority expects it to do. And trading strategies based on
contrarian position choices are more popular (and successful) than many might
think.
The Retail Sales report moves the
Forex market
US Retail
Sales are out later this week, on Friday 13th. This particular
report is always closely watched by Forex traders. If it provides the lift that
is expected it will most likely prolong or even accelerate the US dollar rally
that the Non-Farm Payrolls report contributed to on Friday. However, anything
in the nature of a disappointment will almost certainly see dollar bulls
severely punished. In the meantime those commodities that tend to weaken as the
greenback rises, such as gold and oil, continue their journey south.
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