Monday, November 2, 2015

The first trading day of the month: Mandelbrot said stand aside | Mr. Draghi speaks later today – but high impact unlikely

As well as placing trades and managing them, the OmiCronFX Mandelbrot algorithmic routine also facilitates historical analysis of price action in various currency pairs, as well as in traded commodities such as oil and gold. We carry out a very significant amount of historical analysis, going back over a considerable period of time, and taking into account the behaviour of exchange rates and prices under any and all conditions.

The Mandelbrot routine has highlighted the fact that the first trading day of the month is normally a day when bets should either be very small, or the trader should consider standing aside altogether. Yesterday, Monday November 2nd, was no exception. As can be seen in the chart above it was a flat day for trading, and choppy with it. Not the kind of day that lends itself to the kind of price action that we like.

It is also of abiding interest that the resilient Euro is now, some three days later, almost back at the level it was against the US dollar prior to last week’s Fed FOMC monetary policy statement, which resulted in such a dramatic fall in the immediate aftermath.

Mr. Draghi speaks later today – but high impact unlikely

The item above is from the weekly schedule of engagements of European Central Bank board members. It shows that the president, Mario Draghi, is due to give a speech at the opening of the European Cultural Days 2015 event that is organised every year by the central bank.

We understand that the theme this year is Maltese culture. Although the people who compile the economic calendar have given this a high priority rating, we suspect that it will fall into the same category as the recent launch of the artwork exposition at ECB headquarters, where Mr. Draghi also presided but made no mention whatever of anything of interest to the markets. It is late in the evening, and we will keep an eye on it, even if just to be on the safe side.

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