Yesterday
saw a dramatic fall in value of the Euro against the U.S. dollar, as traders positioned
themselves in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest
rate decision later in the global day today. A rise of 25 basis points is
widely expected by all markets and commentators, so the U.S. dollar was being
bought across the board during the North American session yesterday.
In truth,
the Single Currency had got more than a little bit ahead of itself, on the back
of the so-called “failure to deliver” on the part of the ECB in its monetary
policy statement of December 2nd, when it did actually accelerate
Quantitative Easing (QE), only not to anything like the extent that the Forex
market had been expecting. Prior to that particular meeting, the Euro was well on course to fall to 1.05 dollars. At its peak yesterday
it touched 1.1060 (see chart above).
Because of
the Fed meeting later, today has the potential to deliver extreme short-term
volatility in the Forex markets – when and if the U.S. main interest rate is
increased, it will be the first time this has happened in over nine years. So great
care is called for in trading.
U.S. core inflation news will comfort the Fed
Official inflation
figures released yesterday show that core U.S. inflation, the Consumer Price
Index (CPI) with volatile energy and food prices excluded, showed a
satisfactory annual rise of 2%, which is the Fed’s target inflation rate for a
sustainable economy. The full inflation story is less benign, with the headline
rate coming in at only 0.5% rise year-on-year. However, most economists believe
that the fall in the price of oil and other commodities will eventually come to
an end, and headline inflation will then start to move closer to the core rate.
In the meantime consumers are experiencing something of a windfall because of
lower prices for fuel and other related consumables. That, in itself, cannot be
bad for the economy.
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