Monday, July 1, 2013

Will the Swiss franc be tradable again?

We just might possibly be emerging from one of the most extraordinary periods in post war history, which has been centred on the great financial crisis that first made itself apparent in 2008.

So bad has the situation been that many institutions and wealthy individuals felt it necessary to move their liquid assets into commodities and currencies that they perceived would hold their value in an economic  doomsday scenario. Thus we have seen the formation of what can only be described as a bubble in the price of gold, for example.

Another so-called safe haven has been the Swiss franc. So disciplined and conservative have been the Swiss that their currency has been given this accolade since the start of the crisis. Not without cost, however, for Swiss exporters. So popular has the currency been that it strengthened to such an extent that it threatened the Swiss economy. At the end of 2011 Swiss monetary authorities announced that they were prepared to spend as much as required from their reserves to ensure that the EURCHF pair did not go below 1.20 (A drop in this pair signifies a strengthening of the Swiss franc).

So, presumably, Swiss Foreign Exchange reserves have been accumulating Euros.

Now global economies are looking like they might be getting healthy again. Investors might, just might, be moving out of Swiss francs and into other currencies, like the US dollar. As can be seen on the chart above, this seems to be having the effect of raising the EURCHF pair from off its pegged rate of 1.20.

Now all that might be required is that the Swiss Central Bank is able to unwind its Euro holdings in an orderly manner for the EURCHF pair and others to be considered, once again, as tradable currency pairs..

No comments:

Post a Comment