Friday, November 15, 2013

All strategies on track | Aussie – Kiwi pair battering TA support

The strategies we have been writing about, involving the USDJPY pair, the EuroDollar (EURUSD), gold and the Aussie (AUDUSD) all remain on track. The Yen continues to fall against the US unit, which means that the USDJPY pair continues to rise and is now gone beyond the psychological 100.00 Yen to the dollar level; it looks like the Single Currency might (although the jury is still out on this) have fulfilled its retrace destiny at the 38.2% Fib level (we suggested that it might choose one or other Fibonacci retracement level to turn at, but it could have further to go if this one does not hold):

and both the Aussie and Gold are still in what looks like terminal decline.

There is an interesting battle being fought at present between the Australian Dollar and the Kiwi, or New Zealand Dollar. Both of these are susceptible to US Quantitative Easing (QE) expectations, and both are also very much dependent on the Chinese market, the Aussie for hard commodities like Iron Ore and the Kiwi for the softer articles of trade, mainly powdered milk. However, the New Zealand monetary authorities have been somewhat more definite in their talk of raising interest rates. This attracts the attention of the Carry Trade.

And so the AUDNZD pair has been trying to get below the support level at around 1.1200 (see top chart). Looked at on the four hour chart (below), it can be seen that there is a previous lower low at 1.1321. We would prefer to see the price rise close to or above that one more time before setting the Silver Trigger routine to take a short position, to be on the safe side.

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