
The strategies we have been writing about, involving the USDJPY pair, the EuroDollar (EURUSD), gold and the Aussie (AUDUSD) all remain on
track. The Yen continues to fall against the US unit, which means that the
USDJPY pair continues to rise and is now gone beyond the psychological 100.00
Yen to the dollar level; it looks like the Single Currency might (although the jury is still out on this) have fulfilled
its retrace destiny at the 38.2% Fib level (we suggested that it might choose
one or other Fibonacci retracement level to turn at, but it could have further to go if this one does not hold):
and both the Aussie and Gold are still in what looks like terminal
decline.
There is an interesting battle being fought at present between the
Australian Dollar and the Kiwi, or New Zealand Dollar. Both of these are
susceptible to US Quantitative Easing (QE) expectations, and both are also very
much dependent on the Chinese market, the Aussie for hard commodities like Iron Ore
and the Kiwi for the softer articles of trade, mainly powdered milk. However,
the New Zealand
monetary authorities have been somewhat more definite in their talk of raising
interest rates. This attracts the attention of the Carry Trade.
And so the AUDNZD pair has been trying to get below the support level at
around 1.1200 (see top chart). Looked at on the four hour chart (below), it can be seen
that there is a previous lower low at 1.1321. We would prefer to see the price rise close to or above that one more time before setting the Silver Trigger routine to take a
short position, to be on the safe side.
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