Thursday, November 14, 2013

US dollar - Yen pair takes off

On Wednesday Oct 30th we highlighted an almost perfect TA pennant on the Yen (USDJPY pair). As noted, pennants are regarded as continuation patterns, so we would be looking for a breakout from the point, to the upside.

This may now be happening. The fundamentals would also support it, in that so-called Abenomics, or the desire on the part of the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzō Abe, to stimulate the Japanese economy with his easing policies, is still underway. In fact, the first anniversary of the start of Abenomics occurs around now.

The other side of the support for the USDJPY pair, the US dollar, is gaining strength on the back of improved conditions in the USA for the eventual elimination of Quantitative Easing (QE).

OmiCronFX has held a long position in the Yen since the date of our observation on the pennant. We closed two-thirds of that on a dip on the 7th Nov. The balance is a current trade, as the pair has returned to a growth trajectory since then.

Now the psychological 100.00 Yen to the USD is hoving into view. It will be interesting how it negotiates that particular resistance. It is also to be expected that the peaks at points 1, 2 & 3 in the chart could provide some resistance also, in particular point 3.


  1. dando un occhiata sul mensile si e in presenza di un trend ribassista iniziato il 01/07/1998 attualmente i prezzi sono in zona di resistenza di 101 il quale e anche il 61.80% di fibonacci quindi e possibili che in questa area si possa andare direttamente short??

  2. giving you a look at the monthly chart and in the presence of a bearish trend started on 01/07/1989 currently prices are in area 101 so it may be possible that in this area you might andre short?

  3. Peace and Blessings,

    Seems that we want to purchase 100.00 yens for USD and when the Demand for Yen is needed we will sell our portion of yens and make the difference. Holiday coming so Yens wants to send nice exports out at discounted price on The Yen, The USA Holiday shoppings surely on the rise THE DEMAND of the USD.

    Then is heading towards that leg of USD 101.00 demand because of Holiday shopping. Money is being spent and business are taking out year profits. The Yen will be heading towards 96.00....Watching The Price actions we can see where the contracts are.