There was a fair amount of volatility in Foreign Exchange trading after
the US Federal Reserve December meeting yesterday, when the start of tapering
was, at long last, announced. The beginning of the end of Quantitative Easing
(QE), albeit of a tentative nature (monthly Federal Reserve bond purchases are
to be curtailed by a mere 12.5%) in order to preserve, as far as possible,
order in the markets, coincided with the passing of the vote in the US Congress
to ensure that there would be no repeat of the government paralysis which led
to a partial Federal shutdown in October, for at least two years (which is a
long time in politics). Prior to that, Mr. Bernanke had made it known that the
uncertainty caused by the political stalemate at the time was a factor in
delaying the start of tapering.
As mentioned yesterday, we sat on the sidelines while the currencies
with which we are concerned gyrated quite alarmingly. Things have now settled
somewhat and we are again taking positions. These are in EURUSD (Short), Gold
(Short), USDJPY (Long), NZDUSD (Short) and AUDUSD (Short). We also have a
conditional short on the AUDNZD, which has reached a resistance level on the
four hour chart.
Of double tops and double
bottoms
As can be seen in the chart above, the Euro seems to have finally
embraced what we would regard as reality, and might be starting to head back
down after its counterintuitive rise on recent times. A clear double top looks
like forming at the level of just over 1.38 to the US dollar.
No corresponding double bottom seems to be in prospect for the Aussie
dollar, however. It is too early to say yet whether or not it will overcome the
support it has met at 0.884, but price on the chart looks like it is about to
do so.
In addition, we have the target rate set recently by the governor of the
Reserve Bank of Australia ,
Glenn Stevens, which is 0.85 Aussies to the US unit. Our outlook for the Aussie
is still down. Our belief is that price will proceed past this support to form
a lower low on the weekly chart, to complement the lower high set in October,
which in turn will describe a definitive downward dominant trend.
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