While it does not always correctly
predict the outcome of the official Non-Farm Payroll figures released by the US
Bureau of Labor Statistics, the private firm, ADP, always brings its figures
out before the government report each month. Both sets of numbers are advanced
by one day this time (Official NFP figures are normally on the first Friday of
each month) to take account of the fact that tomorrow (Friday) is an official holiday
in the US, making the 4th of July weekend a three day break.
Official government Non Farm Payrolls
will be released later today (Thursday) in consequence.
The auguries are good. Not only did
the ADP report indicate healthy growth in employment, but separate reports
yesterday, for Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs), from both
Markit and the Institute of Supply Managers (ISM), and Construction Spending
from the Census Bureau, all showed increases.
…but
beware 4th of July holiday adjustments
The EURUSD pair is currently marking
time, but we can expect the usual fireworks on the NFP release. Bi-directional,
short-term volatility could be exacerbated on this occasion because of the upcoming
US holiday weekend, which also sees the Greek referendum on bailout proposals, due
to take place on Sunday. The confluence of all of these events means that many
large trading institutions will be adjusting, closing or hedging their positions
later in the trading day today.
This makes it a good day for us to
stand aside.
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