The official US Nonfarm Payrolls
report yesterday came in at 223k new jobs in the month of June. This means that
the indicator is maintaining its crucial monthly average of in excess of 200k.
There were, as is usual, revisions to previous metrics, which had the effect of
reducing them somewhat.
…but
US dollar is bid down anyway
Because a majority of economists had
predicted that the figure for June would be 230k, which is marginally higher
than the actual outcome, the knee-jerk reaction of the Forex market was to mark
down the US dollar (see chart above – a rise in EURUSD means a weaker dollar).
Those of us who mine data know that decisions
cannot be made on the basis of a single data point, and the Federal Reserve,
which uses this and similar information to inform its decisions about core
interest rate rises, knows that too. As a general rule, if the monthly NFP
outcome exceeds 200k consistently, then things are well on track for the
expected start of rate rises later on in 2015.
Trading yesterday was complicated by
the fact that we were facing into a holiday weekend stateside, which is now
upon us. As previously noted, the market is further threatened by the referendum
on Greek bailout options that is due to be held this coming Sunday.
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