Thursday, July 2, 2015

June US nonfarm payrolls exceed 200k | …but dollar is bid down anyway

The official US Nonfarm Payrolls report yesterday came in at 223k new jobs in the month of June. This means that the indicator is maintaining its crucial monthly average of in excess of 200k. There were, as is usual, revisions to previous metrics, which had the effect of reducing them somewhat.

…but US dollar is bid down anyway

Because a majority of economists had predicted that the figure for June would be 230k, which is marginally higher than the actual outcome, the knee-jerk reaction of the Forex market was to mark down the US dollar (see chart above – a rise in EURUSD means a weaker dollar).

Those of us who mine data know that decisions cannot be made on the basis of a single data point, and the Federal Reserve, which uses this and similar information to inform its decisions about core interest rate rises, knows that too. As a general rule, if the monthly NFP outcome exceeds 200k consistently, then things are well on track for the expected start of rate rises later on in 2015.

Trading yesterday was complicated by the fact that we were facing into a holiday weekend stateside, which is now upon us. As previously noted, the market is further threatened by the referendum on Greek bailout options that is due to be held this coming Sunday.

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